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The most important question for me about the 2013 Tony Awards is not: Is Kinky Boots a shoe-in for the bulk of its 13 Tony Award nominations, more than any other show this season?

Or: Will Matilda, with 12 nominations, dominate the night?

Or: Will Tom Hanks be the lucky guy he’s always been and win a Tony for his Broadway debut?

The question is: Why do so many theatergoers care what 435 people think?

There are just 868 voters for the Tony Awards. As theater critic (and Tony voter) Jeremy Gerard pointed out last week in his diatribe against “Phony Tony Voting“, many of these voters are from out-

of-town and don’t even see all the shows they’re voting on. Who are these voters? Many are theater artists; most seem to be in the business of commercial theater. Only 25 are critics; the rest of the critics are excluded under the Orwellian/Alice in Wonderland argument that we can’t be impartial since we’ve gone public with our opinions. Meanwhile, the decision-making is allowed into the hands of people who have a financial interest in the outcome.

In his article, Gerard also argues it is “rotten… that, after 67 years, the Tonys still exclude off-Broadway while claiming to celebrate the best of American theater.”

So why are the Tony Awards given so much more importance than any of the many, many other theater awards that have sprouted up since the Antoinette Perry Awards for Excellence in Theater were established in 1947? The answer is simple: The Tony Awards show is the only one that is televised on a broadcast network. It is the only opportunity each year for millions of theater lovers to catch up on what’s happening on New York stages. Its influence is profound: Billy Porter, nominee this year for best performance of an actor in a leading role in a musical, says it was watching Jennifer Holliday perform in the 1982 Tony Awards that persuaded the then-12-year-old Pittsburgh native to become a professional performer.

Below are my picks for the 2013 Tony Awards — by which I mean, whom I would choose among the nominees. These are not my predictions of who will actually win: How can I guess what 800-odd people who haven’t even seen all the shows will vote for? And why should I, since I have seen all the shows?

BEST PLAY

Nominees: The Assembled Parties; Lucky Guy; The Testament of Mary; Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

BEST MUSICAL

Nominees: Bring It On: The Musical; A Christmas Story, The Musical; Kinky Boots; Matilda The Musical

My choice: Matilda The Musical

This is not as much of a slam-dunk for me as it apparently will be for many Tony voters. I liked “A Christmas Story” almost as much, and it is a warmer show. But there’s an inventiveness in the design of “Matilda” and a cleverness in the lyrics that distinguishes it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (MUSIC AND/OR LYRICS) WRITTEN FOR THE THEATRE

Nominees: A Christmas Story, The Musical; Hands on a Hardbody; Kinky Boots; Matilda the Musical

My choice: A Christmas Story

This is a tough decision, because the show with some of the cleverest lyrics, Matilda, doesn’t have the most memorable score, while the shows with some rocking tunes, Hands on a Hardbody and Kinky Boots, have lyrics that are often unimpressive.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Nominees: Golden Boy; Orphans, The Trip to Bountiful; Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

My choice: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

This brings up an almost-philosophical issue: Does a production deserve more credit for making the most of  an outdated or otherwise inferior script or are we duty-bound to honor the best script? The production of the creaky “Golden Boy” was wonderful; there is much as well to recommend The Trip to Bountiful with its “non-traditional” high-quality cast.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees: Tom Hanks Lucky Guy; Nathan Lane The Nance; Tracy Letts Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; David Hyde Pierce Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Tom Sturridge Orphans

My choice: Nathan Lane, The Nance

 This is Lane’s 19th show on Broadway and his fourth Tony nomination (He won two of the previous three.) For this role as a closeted vaudeville performer from the 1930’s, Lane delivers the kind of performance for which he is best known — the song-and-dance comedian with the perfect timing — but goes deeper and darker when his character is off the stage. All four of the other nominees deliver quality performances, and it would not be a travesty if Letts was honored for his spot-on performance as the bizarrely playful and bitter George, even though it is his Broadway acting debut.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees: Laurie Metcalf The Other Place; Amy Morton Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Kristine Nielsen Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Holland Taylor Ann; Cicely Tyson The Trip to Bountiful

My choice: Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

This is the category that should convince any serious theatergoer how wrong-headed it is to turn theater art into a competition. Every single one of these actresses gave a performance that knocked me out. A particular shout-out to Kristine Nielsen, who I feel was robbed of her rightful Tony by being put in this category instead of featured actress.

But Cicely Tyson managed to make something fresh out of a role that could too easily make you pity the character rather than empathize and admire her.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Bertie Carvel Matilda The Musical; Santino Fontana Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella; Rob McClure Chaplin; Billy Porter Kinky Boots; Stark Sands Kinky Boots

My choice: Rob McClure, Chaplin

McClure’s performance reminds me of the joke about Ginger Rogers doing everything Fred Astaire did but backwards and in high heels. McClure delivered the song, dance and acting at the same level as the other nominees but also rode backwards on a bicycle on a high wire.

A shout-out to Billy Porter, who does a wonderful job with a hackneyed character.

Bertie Carvel, who gives an impressive if off-putting performance as a sadistic headmistress, is in my view a featured actor — which is how he was categorized by the Drama Desk Awards.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Stephanie J. Block The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Carolee Carmello Scandalous; Valisia LeKae Motown The Musical; Patina Miller Pippin; Laura Osnes Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

My choice: Valisia LeKae, Motown

This is a difficult category, not just because the talent is so plentiful, but because the shows are so beneath them. I’ll admit to coming up with my choice in part through process of elimination, but something magical happened during LeKae’s scene playing Diana Ross in her first solo concert, bringing audience members to the stage to sing “Reach Out and Touch.”  As lovely and impressive as the other nominees’ performances were, I don’t recall any such similar moment in them.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees: Danny Burstein Golden Boy; Richard Kind, The Big Knife; Billy Magnussen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy; Courtney B. Vance, Lucky Guy

My choice: Richard Kind, The Big Knife

Those who’ve been able to catch the 1955  movie of “The Big Knife,” with Rod Steiger’s absurdly over-the-top portrayal of the thug-like movie studio head, can even more appreciate Kind’s performance, which is modulated and credible before it becomes explosive; he seems to inhabit the role.

I do give a shout-out to Tony Shalhoub who performed the single most memorable gesture of the entire season — as his son reverently but ambivalently picks up the new violin, Shalhoub quickly places the suddenly materialized violin pad on his son’s shoulder, a simultaneously hilarious and touching moment.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Charl Brown, Motown The Musical; Keith Carradine, Hands on a Hardbody; Will Chase,The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Gabriel Ebert, Matilda The Musical; Terrence Mann,Pippin

My choice: Keith Carradine, Hands on a Hardbody

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots;  Victoria Clark, Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella; Andrea Martin,Pippin; Keala Settle Hands on a Hardbody; Lauren Ward Matilda The Musical

My choice: Andrea Martin Pippin

Shout-out to Keala Settle, who has an amazing voice.

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Scott Ellis The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Jerry Mitchell Kinky Boots; Diane Paulus Pippin; Matthew Warchus Matilda The Musical

My choice: Matthew Warchus, Matilda The Musical

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

Nominees: Chris Nightingale Matilda The Musical; Stephen Oremus Kinky Boots; Ethan Popp & Bryan Crook Motown The Musical;  Danny Troob Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

My choice: Danny Troob, Cinderella

The orchestrations gave new luscious life to Rodgers and Hammerstein’s wonderful score. I could just as easily vote for Ethan Popp and Bryan Cook for Motown.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Gregg Barnes Kinky Boots; Rob Howell Matilda The Musical; Dominique Lemieux Pippin; William Ivey Long Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

My choice: William Ivey Long, Cinderella

The other designers offered flamboyance. Long also gave us magic; at least three times a character changes before our eyes from one costume into another in what goes by so quickly it seems like a cinematic special effect.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Kenneth Posner Kinky Boots; Kenneth Posner Pippin; Kenneth Posner; Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella; Hugh Vanstone Matilda The Musical

My choice: Hugh Vanstone, Matilda

The designers are what make Matilda feel so magical, and its lighting is central to establishing the mood of each scene. I would be leaning toward Vanstone even if I didn’t feel that this veteran designer of 19 Broadway shows, who has never won a Tony, was cheated out of the Tony last year because the show for which he was nominated, “Ghost,” got such a poor reception in New York (in sharp contrast to the response in the UK).

Shout-out to Kenneth Posner, prolific and spot-on lighting designer with some 50 Broadway shows to credit, who has won the Tony before and will again.

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Jonathan Deans & Garth Helm Pippin; Peter Hylenski Motown The Musical; John Shivers Kinky Boots; Nevin Steinberg

Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

My choice: Peter Hylenski Motown The Musical

I won’t say that the sound design is the single best thing about Motown The Musical, but it enhanced what is the best thing about the musical, the show-stopping numbers.

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