Below are my preferences – not predictions – for the 2024 Tony Awards, in keeping with a tradition I’ve been maintaining for more than a decade. I am a critic, not a seer or a bookie. We’ll learn the choices of the future 836 Tony voters soon enough — this Sunday, June 16th.

But I also continue another annual tradition, posting the results of a poll of theater-loving readers, asking for their preferences (again, not their predictions) in 12 of the 26 categories, which helps gauge the nominees’ popularity.

Update: I’ve added who actually won.

Best Play

Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Mother Play
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic

Poll pick: Stereophonic
My preference: Mary Jane and Stereophonic

I know this will be seen as the coward’s way out; ties are extremely rare. (There have been ten in Tony history, including “The Sound of Music” and “Fiorello!” as Best Musical in 1960; never one for Best Play.)
I understand why so many are impressed with “Stereophonic,” which has received 13 Tony nominations, more than any other straight play in Tony history. Some of the individual scenes feel meticulously observed from real life, unfolding at a pace that emulates real time, but also offering a subtle wit and the possibility of deeper meaning. More cynically, in a Broadway culture that values musicals over plays, it’s the closest to a musical that a straight play gets, with a score that rocks (although I fully appreciated the music only after listening to the original cast recording.) But clocking in at more than three hours, I found it overlong and too often tedious. And, although nobody connected to the show says this explicitly (perhaps for legal reasons?),the story and the characters are derivative, playwright David Adjmi lifting them from the band Fleetwood Mac and their making of the album “Rumors”
“Mary Jane” is a quieter play, about a mother taking care of a severely disabled child, the precision and authenticity of playwright Amy Herzog’s observations rooted in personal experience;  she and her husband Sam Gold were the parents of just such a child. The play takes us on a well-crafted journey from the practical to the spiritual, ever so subtly suggesting the connection between the two.

Who won: Stereophonic

Best Musical

Hell’s Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water for Elephants

Poll pick: The Outsiders
My preference: Suffs

“Suffs” is the only nominated musical that is original, from scratch, not adapted from another “IP” (intellectual property), be it a film, a book, or a series of songs. Its  portrayal of the extraordinary women in the suffrage movement is based on history, and Its timing at a moment in history when women’s rights are being threatened gives it a heft unique among the nominated shows, and helps make it inspiring.

Who won: The Outsiders

Best Revival of a Play

Appropriate
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

Poll pick: Appropriate
My preference: Appropriate

 Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ play tells the story of a dysfunctional family, but also in its own wry and sly way tells a larger, even darker story of race in America. 

Amy Herzog deserves kudos for her adaptation of Ibsen’s classic (although not as much as for her original script, “Mary Jane”)

Who won: Appropriate

Best Revival of a Musical

Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Gutenberg! The Musical!
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who’s Tommy

Poll pick: Merrily We Roll Along
My preference: Merrily We Roll Along

Stephen Sondheim and George Furth’s musical is the story of three friends who go backwards in time, from cynical, corrupted middle age to idealistic youth. But it’s also the story (considerably more upbeat) of a Broadway musical that in 1981 was a notorious flop, closing after 12 days and ending the famed collaboration between Sondheim and Harold Prince, which four decades later in its first-ever Broadway revival has become a critical and popular hit. I don’t agree with those who believe its flaws have finally been fixed after many attempts over the years, nor those who think it’s just the audience who needed to catch up to Sondheim’s genius. (Its plot, with its moments of Hollywood morality tale melodrama, is less fresh than most of Sondheim’s musicals.) But it’s a deeply satisfying production, which showcases a wonderful cast and does justice to Sondheim’s clever and yes tuneful score.

Who won: Merrily We Roll Along

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Liev Schreiber, Doubt: A Parable
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

Poll pick: Leslie Odom Jr.
My preference: Leslie Odom Jr.

Odom, who made his name on Broadway (and earned a Tony) delivering with uncommon clarity the pithiest raps in “Hamilton,” as smooth-talking, untrustworthy but surprisingly sympathetic Aaron Burr, similarly navigates the duality of the character Purlie Victorious Judson, a newly-minted preacher, who is both a comic mountebank and an impassioned civil rights advocate.

Who won: Jeremy Strong

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Betsy Aidem, Prayer for the French Republic
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Amy Ryan, Doubt: A Parable

Poll pick: Sarah Paulson
My preference: Jessica Lange

Jessica Lange is unforgettable in Paula Vogel’s unforgiving portrait of the title character, a role that is so demanding that it feels tantamount to actor abuse. The actress is called on to age forty years on stage, frequently and ferociously in a heightened state of emotion, whether drunkenly oversharing, uncontrollably raging, bitterly regretting, or coldly rejecting her two children. 

Who won: Sarah Paulson

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Brody Grant, The Outsiders
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood, The Notebook
Brian d’Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Poll pick: Jonathan Groff
My preference: Jonathan Groff

Groff portrays Franklin Shepard, the central character of the show, and through a mysterious alchemy that’s bestowed on performers of star quality, manages to keep the audience on Franklin’s side, even when he’s a money-obsessed, two-timing movie producer.

This is one of the categories that shows the downside of any awards, since it forces a choice even when so many of these performances are terrific: Dorian Harewood is the stand-out for me in The Notebook, Brian d’Arcy James a superb partner to Kelli O’Hara, and Brody Grant makes a memorable Broadway debut

Who won: Jonathan Groff

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen
Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Poll pick: Kelli O’Hara
My preference: Kelli O’Hara

Armed with a golden-voice that makes the most of the jazzy score, O’Hara navigates her character’s rocky emotional journey to become a debilitated alcoholic with a credibility that few other performers could match. 

Again, an impressive category: Maryann Plunkett is especially poignant as the aged lover with dementia. Maleah Joe Moon couldn’t have made a splashier Broadway debut.

Who won: Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Will Brill, Stereophonic
Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Jim Parsons, Mother Play
Tom Pecinka, Stereophonic
Corey Stoll, Appropriate

Poll pick: Corey Stoll
My preference: Will Brill, Eli Gelb, Tom Pecinka

That there are three nominees from “Stereophonic” in this category this year is a good argument for the Tonys to add an award category for ensemble acting. They are not just acting with one another, but off of one another. So I’ll create my own makeshift ensemble category, acknowledging Will Brill as the bassist Reg whose drunkenness makes life more difficult for Eli Gelb as the ambitious sound engineer Grover who is browbeat by Tom Pecinka as Peter, the bossy band leader whom everybody kind of hates.

Who won: Will Brill

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Quincy Tyler Bernstine, Doubt: A Parable
Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic
Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mother Play
Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

Poll pick: Kara Young
My preference: Quincy Tyler Bernstine

Every single one of these nominees deserves the acknowledgement of a Tony, and again, it’s unfair to pit Stereophonic performers against one another,

Quincy Tyler Bernstine has just a single scene in “Doubt,” as the mother of the boy who is possibly being abused, but she is a stand-out not just in the play but in the season. Bernstine, who has only been on Broadway once before but has been a versatile mainstay Off Broadway for nearly two decades, portrayed a poor, hardworking woman who is cowed by the trappings of the church, but struggles through her intimidation to stand up to the nun, and in the process allows us to see clearly her differing and distinct worldview on race, class and sexual orientation.

Who won: Kara Young

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Roger Bart, Back To The Future: The Musical
Joshua Boone, The Outsiders
Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell’s Kitchen
Sky Lakota-Lynch, The Outsiders
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Steven Skybell, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Poll pick: Daniel Radcliffe
My preference: Daniel Radcliffe

Daniel Radcliffe, a movie star much beloved internationally, has earned his theater accolades. “Merrily” is his fifth Broadway role and he’s splendid in it; his rendition of the brilliant Sondheim song, “Franklin Shepard Inc,”  with its innovative use of sound effects as Charley bitterly mocks Frank on national television, is one of the showstoppers of the season.

Sky Lakota-Lynch has a memorable song “Stay Gold,”Steven Skybellis one of the two best things about Cabaret, Brandon Victor Dixon certainly cooks in “Hell’s Kitchen”

Who won Daniel Radcliffe

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Shoshana Bean, Hell’s Kitchen
Amber Iman, Lempicka
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python’s Spamalot
Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Poll pick: Lindsay Mendez
My preference: Kecia Lewis

What an impossible category. I’d be happy if any one of these actresses took home the trophy. Amber Iman and Bebe Neuwrith, for example, were the towering stand-outs for me in their respective shows. Lindsay Mendez plays Mary, the essential third wheel in the friendship/rivalry between Groff as Franklin and Radcliffe as Charley; as performers the three in the best scenes feel like a single inseparable entity. Kecia Lewis’ powerful rendition of the angry “Perfect Way to Die” feels like the crystallization of all that she’s learned in a Broadway career that spans four decades.

Who won: Kecia Lewis

Best Direction of a Play

Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic
Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane
Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate
Whitney White, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

My preference: Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane

Who won: Daniel Aukin

Best Direction of a Musical

Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along
Michael Greif, Hell’s Kitchen
Leigh Silverman, Suffs
Jessica Stone, Water for Elephants
Danya Taymor, The Outsiders

My preference: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

Also greatly deserving: Jessica Stone, Water for Elephants

Who won: Danya Taymor

Best Book of a Musical

Hell’s Kitchen (Kristoffer Diaz)
The Notebook (Bekah Brunstetter)
The Outsiders (Adam Rapp and Justin Levine)
Suffs (Shaina Taub)
Water for Elephants (Rick Elice)

My Preference: Suffs

Who won: Suffs

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Days of Wine and Roses (Music & Lyrics: Adam Guettel )
Here Lies Love (Music: David Byrne and Fatboy Slim  Lyrics: David Byrne) 
The Outsiders (Music & Lyrics: Jamestown Revival (Jonathan Clay and Zach Chance) and Justin Levine)
Stereophonic (Music & Lyrics: Will Butler) 
Suffs (Music & Lyrics: Shaina Taub )

My Preference: Days of Wine and Roses

Adam Guettel’w thirteen songs are not conventionally hummable – more often recitative than arias – but they demonstrate the immense insight and power that can be generated by the clever use of music and the careful choice of words. Much of the score is composed of different kinds of jazz, reflecting the arc of the story: swinging (sleazy-sounding) jazz that accompanies the joy that the couple take in each other (fueled by alcohol); Andrews Sister-like harmonies; Brubeck-like cool; a be-bop accompanied breakdown. 

Who won: Suffs

Best Scenic Design of a Play

dots, Appropriate
dots, An Enemy of the People
Derek McLane, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
David Zinn, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
David Zinn, Stereophonic

My preference: dots, Appropriate

A hyper-realistic recreation of an old haunting plantation house turned surrealistic at the end. I’m a sucker for a coup de théâtre, executed awesomely by dots t(Santiago Orjuela-Laverde, Andrew Moerdyk and Kimie Nishikawa)

Who won: David Zinn Stereophonic

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian, The Outsiders
Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini, Hell’s Kitchen
Takeshi Kata, Water for Elephants
David Korins, Here Lies Love
Riccardo Hernández and Peter Nigrini, Lempicka
Tim Hatley and Finn Ross, Back To The Future: The Musical
Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

My preference: Here Lies Love

This is one of the two set designs that completely transformed the theater — and the one that put that transformation best to use, an integral part of the closest Broadway will probably ever come to immersive theater.

Who won: Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Costume Design of a Play

Dede Ayite, Appropriate
Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Enver Chakartash, Stereophonic
Emilio Sosa, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
David Zinn, An Enemy of the People

My preference: Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

The designer of “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding” who most deserves a Tony is the one who did the braided hair, Hair and Wig Designer Nikiya Mathis, but there is no such Tony category (She is getting a special non-competitive Tony Award this year.) Dede Ayite provides a frame for Mathis’ work, and also pinpoints the style and varying personalities of the African immigrant characters.

Who won: Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Dede Ayite, Hell’s Kitchen
Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby
David Israel Reynoso, Water for Elephants
Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Paul Tazewell, Suffs

My preference: Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby

Who won: Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Isabella Byrd, An Enemy of the People
Amith Chandrashaker, Prayer for the French Republic
Jiyoun Chang, Stereophonic
Jane Cox, Appropriate
Natasha Katz, Grey House

My preference: Natasha Katz, Grey House and Jane Cox, Appropriate

Since I broke the tie taboo already, these both use light and the absence of light to haunt us, and tease us — to provoke a palpable emotional reaction.

Who won: Jane Cox, Appropriate

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Brandon Stirling Baker, Illinoise
Isabella Byrd, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Natasha Katz, Hell’s Kitchen
Bradley King and David Bengali, Water for Elephants
Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim, The Outsiders

My preference: Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim, The Outsiders

Who won: Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim, The Outsiders

Best Sound Design of a Play

Justin Ellington and Stefania Bulbarella, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Leah Gelpe, Mary Jane
Tom Gibbons, Grey House
Bray Poor and Will Pickens, Appropriate
Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

My preference: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

The whole show, in a way, is about the sound design; certainly depends on it.

Who won: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

Best Sound Design of a Musical

M.L. Dogg and Cody Spencer, Here Lies Love
Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along
Nick Lidster for Autograph, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Gareth Owen, Hell’s Kitchen
Cody Spencer, The Outsiders

My preference: Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along

Who won: Cody Spencer, The Outsiders

Best Choreography

Annie-B Parson, Here Lies Love
Camille A. Brown, Hell’s Kitchen
Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman, The Outsiders
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll, Water for Elephants

My preference: Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll, Water for Elephants

This is another impossible category; the choreography this season was especially thrilling. “Illinoise” is an obvious choice because dancing is its main language; it’s a dance theater piece. “The Outsiders” has some spectacular fight scenes that use dance muscularly and cinematically. “Hell’s Kitchen” invests the ensemble members with a particular movement vocabulary that creates a character for each one. “Here Lies Love” corrals the audience to participate in the choreography. But I finally prefer “Water for Elephants” because of the incorporation into the more traditional Broadway choreography of heart-stopping circus acrobatics, which is not just athletically spectacular but often visually beautiful and emotionally expressive, enhancing the dancing and even advancing the story.

Who won: Justin Peck, Illinoise

Best Orchestrations

Timo Andres, Illinoise
Will Butler and Justin Craig, Stereophonic
Justin Levine, Matt Hinkley and Jamestown Revival (Jonathan Clay and Zach Chance), The Outsiders
Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone, Hell’s Kitchen
Jonathan Tunick, Merrily We Roll Along

My preference: Jonathan Tunick, Merrily We Roll Along

Orchestrations are central to the appeal of the Sondheim revival, as they’ve been to many of the Sondheim productions I’ve attended, and Tunick has orchestrated almost twenty Sondheim shows on Broadway, including not just this Merrily but the original one in 1981 (before there was a Tony Award for sound design). That’s just one aspect of a career with some 60 Broadway credits and twelve Tony nominations, although Tunick, 86, has won only once before, 27 years ago. I’m not sentimental, but it’s his time, breathe it in, worlds to change, and a Tony to win.

Who won: Jonathan Tunick, Merrily We Roll Along